Arizona map for 646 Phillips Curve The result of trying to do so over a long period of time is simply more inflation without any change in the natural rate of unemployment. In fact, it is typically argued that the ability of the monetary policy authority or central bank (e.g., the FEDERAL RESERVE in the United States) to lower the unemployment rate depends critically on whether or not money is neutral. From a historical perspective, it is interesting to note that during the 1960s, the United States economic policy centered on the ability of a policy- maker to gradually obtain a lower unemployment rate by moderately increasing the inflation rate. However, it was soon recognized that unemployment could not persist below its natural rate without resulting in accelerating inflation. Economic theory suggests that when output exceeds its potential level, shortages of workers and materials develop resulting in upward pressure on wages and the costs of materials. Arizona map 2016.